论文标题
新的随机高速公路容量估计方法以及为什么产品限制方法不合适
New stochastic highway capacity estimation method and why product limit method is unsuitable
论文作者
论文摘要
Kaplan-Meier估计值，通常称为产品极限方法（PLM），通常将最大似然估计方法（MLE）方法通常被视为随机高速公路容量估计的手段。本文讨论了他们对应用程序的不合适性，例如交通流的属性不符合使用这些方法的假设。他们认为观察到的主题具有经历的历史，没有失败。但是，由于其性质，每个交通流量测量的行为是一个独立的主题，并未经历所有较低级别的强度（不是“年龄”）。提出了另一种方法。它适合产生的分解累积频率相对于导致崩溃的交通流量强度，而不是直接估计容量的潜在概率分布。与PLM相比，提供了对新方法的数据量和审查率的准确性和敏感性的分析。结果通常证明了PLM和MLE方法不合适。然后，在案例研究中使用了新方法，该方法比较了安装有和没有交通流量统一系统的工作区的容量。结果证实了协调对容量的积极影响。
Kaplan-Meier estimate, commonly known as product limit method (PLM), and maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) methods in general are often cited as means of stochastic highway capacity estimation. This article discusses their unsuitability for such application as properties of traffic flow do not meet the assumptions for use of the methods. They assume the observed subject has a history which it went through and did not fail. However, due to its nature, each traffic flow measurement behaves as a separate subject which did not go through all the lower levels of intensity (did not "age"). An alternative method is proposed. It fits the resulting cumulative frequency of breakdowns with respect to the traffic flow intensity leading to the breakdown instead of directly estimating the underlying probability distribution of capacity. Analyses of accuracy and sensitivity to data quantity and censoring rate of the new method are provided along with comparison to the PLM. The results prove unsuitability of the PLM and MLE methods in general. The new method is then used in a case study which compares capacity of a work-zone with and without a traffic flow speed harmonisation system installed. The results confirm positive effect of harmonisation on capacity.
