论文标题
太阳磁场的全球演变和活动周期的预测
Global Evolution of Solar Magnetic Fields and Prediction of Activity Cycles
论文作者
论文摘要
太阳活动周期的预测是具有挑战性的，因为日落内的物理过程涉及广泛的多尺度动力学，这些动态无法复制，并且由于可用的观察值高度有限，并且主要覆盖表面层。 Heliosesology可以在对流区域探测太阳能动力学，但是目前仅用于两个太阳能活动周期的差异旋转和子午循环的变化。已经证明，覆盖超过400年的黑子观测可用于校准Parker-kleeeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo模型，并且可以使用集合Kalman Filter（ENKF）方法将建模的磁场与日光点观测值联系起来，并对以下活动周期进行可靠的预测。但是，为了进行更准确的预测，必须使用对太阳能磁场的实际观察结果，这仅适用于最后四个太阳能循环。在本文中，我简要讨论了有限的可用观测值对太阳周期参数ENKF估计准确性的影响，评估预测的标准以及概要磁化图应用于太阳能活动的预测。
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo model, and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the modeled magnetic fields to sunspot observations and make reliable predictions of a following activity cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this paper I briefly discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters, the criteria to evaluate the predictions, and application of synoptic magnetograms to the prediction of solar activity.
