论文标题
基于有限维蒙特卡洛法的快速碰撞概率估计
Fast Collision Probability Estimation Based on Finite-Dimensional Monte Carlo Method
论文作者
论文摘要
无人系统的安全关注点,即对系统异常引起的潜在伤亡的关注,是其发展的瓶颈,尤其是在人口稠密的地区。显然,无人系统与包括移动对象在内的障碍之间的碰撞占系统异常的很大比例。为了避免碰撞,建立了路线计划和相应的控制器,而在存在不确定性的情况下,无人系统可能会偏离预定的路线并与障碍物碰撞。因此,对于无人系统的安全性,碰撞概率估计和进一步的安全决策非常重要。为了估计碰撞概率,可以应用蒙特卡洛方法,但是,通常相当慢。本文介绍了基于有限维分布的快速碰撞概率估计方法,其主要思想是滤除所需的采样点,并通过有限维分布的样品直接生成状态,从而大大减少估计时间。此外,包括概率等距采样和降低尺寸在内的进一步技术也有助于减少估计时间。模拟表明,所提出的方法减少了估计时间的99%以上。
The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned system and the obstacles, including both moving and static objects, accounts for a great proportion of the system abnormalities. The route planning and corresponding controller are established in order to avoid the collision, whereas, in the presence of uncertainties, it is possible that the unmanned system would deviate from the predetermined route and collide with the obstacles. Therefore, for the safety of unmanned systems, collision probability estimation and further safety decision are very important. To estimate the collision probability, the Monte Carlo method could be applied, however, it is generally rather slow. This paper introduces a fast collision probability estimation method based on finite-dimensional distribution, whose main idea is to filter out the sampling points needed and generate the states directly by samples of finite-dimensional distribution, reducing the estimation time significantly. Besides, further techniques including the probabilistic equidistance sampling and dimension reduction, also serve to reduce the estimation time. The simulation shows that the proposed method reduces over 99% of the estimation time.