论文标题
Bernoulli试验偏斜的倾向以进行认证和验证
Bernoulli Trials With Skewed Propensities for Certification and Validation
论文作者
论文摘要
撰写本文的动力是媒体宣传的报告，即软件故障是波音737 Max Aircraft最近两次不幸的原因。但是，这里考虑的问题是一个特定的问题，即它努力解决诸如药物，材料标本或复杂系统之类的物品的总体问题，可以根据大量的Bernoulli试验进行认证，以供使用，所有这些都成功。更广泛地说，本文是试图回答古老而光荣的哲学问题的尝试，即，“何时可以对其自身的经验测试验证自然法则？”我们的信息是，答案取决于一个人开头的内容，即，什么是先前的分布，未知的事物是在先前的分发中以及被观察到的数据。 该论文是说明性的，因为它始于历史概述，最后以一些新的想法和提案来解决提出的问题。在续集中，它还阐明了Popper的“倾向”概念及其在Bernoulli试验下为贝叶斯推论提供适当框架的作用，以及与主观指定的后验分布的必要性；也就是说，在后迭代之前，没有诉诸通常的贝叶斯人。
The impetus for writing this paper are the well publicized media reports that software failure was the cause of the two recent mishaps of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft. The problem considered here though, is a specific one, in the sense that it endeavors to address the general matter of conditions under which an item such as a drug, a material specimen, or a complex, system can be certified for use based on a large number of Bernoulli trials, all successful. More broadly, the paper is an attempt to answer the old and honorable philosophical question, namely," when can empirical testing on its own validate a law of nature?" Our message is that the answer depends on what one starts with, namely, what is one's prior distribution, what unknown does this prior distribution endow, and what has been observed as data. The paper is expository in that it begins with a historical overview, and ends with some new ideas and proposals for addressing the question posed. In the sequel, it also articulates on Popper's notion of "propensity" and its role in providing a proper framework for Bayesian inference under Bernoulli trials, as well as the need to engage with posterior distributions that are subjectively specified; that is, without a recourse to the usual Bayesian prior to posterior iteration.
