论文标题

一个流行病模型,强调了人道的社会意识和矢量宿主寿命比的差异

An epidemic model highlighting humane social awareness and vector-host lifespan ratio variation

论文作者

Wijaya, Karunia Putra, Chávez, Joseph Páez, Aldila, Dipo

论文摘要

许多媒介传播的疾病流行模型忽略了以下事实:在现代人类文明中,社会意识以及自卫系统反对该疾病的高级传播。通过社交媒体和移动应用程序可以毫不费力地访问新闻,而预防疾病的设备倾向于更丰富和负担得起。在这里,我们研究了一个简单的寄主向量模型,其中考虑了媒体触发的社会意识和媒介繁殖中的季节性。似乎有一定的阈值表明爆发令人震惊。上面的感染性人体数量应促进易感亚群的自卫系统。一种模型,即贫困,不情愿,疲劳,认为该疾病很容易治愈,缺乏医疗通道以及压倒性的饥饿载体。进一步的发现是通过在人类和向量人口动态之间进行不同时间尺度进行的。所得的慢速系统揭示了明显的动力学,在该动力学中,溶液轨迹局限于缓慢的流形和临界流形,然后最终以均衡状态达到平衡。还研究了如何与临界流形相吻合的慢速歧管增强周期性强迫。磁滞回路的发现提供了有关定义令人震惊的爆发如何批判性生殖数量的见解,这后来有助于将发病率周期保持在小小的幅度上。

Many vector-borne disease epidemic models neglect the fact that in modern human civilization, social awareness as well as self-defence system are overwhelming against advanced propagation of the disease. News are becoming more effortlessly accessible through social media and mobile apps, while apparatuses for disease prevention are inclined to be more abundant and affordable. Here we study a simple host-vector model in which media-triggered social awareness and seasonality in vector breeding are taken into account. There appears a certain threshold indicating the alarming outbreak; the number of infective human individuals above which shall actuate the self-defence system for the susceptible subpopulation. A model where the infection rate revolves in the likelihood of poverty, reluctancy, tiresomeness, perceiving the disease as being easily curable, absence of medical access, and overwhelming hungrier vectors is proposed. Further discoveries are made from undertaking disparate time scales between human and vector population dynamics. The resulting slow-fast system discloses notable dynamics in which solution trajectories confine to the slow manifold and critical manifold, before finally ending up at equilibria. How coinciding the slow manifold with the critical manifold enhances periodic forcing is also studied. The finding on hysteresis loops gives insights of how defining alarming outbreak critically perturbs the basic reproductive number, which later helps keep the incidence cycle on small magnitudes.

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