论文标题
有限资源的因果推断:按比例代表性的干预措施
Causal inference with limited resources: proportionally-representative interventions
论文作者
论文摘要
假设可以使用无限数量的治疗单位,研究人员通常通过考虑将所有个人分配给所有人的感兴趣的设置来评估治疗效果。但是,许多现实生活在供应量有限,无法向所有人中的所有个人提供。例如,由于不太可能立即可立即获得肝脏移植等待名单上的患者,因此无法立即分配肝移植。在这些情况下,调查人员可能仍然对在给定时间可用的有限数量的器官(即满足资源限制的治疗方案)的效果感兴趣。在这里,我们描述了一个估计,该估计可用于定义满足资源限制的治疗策略的因果影响:有限资源的代表性干预措施。我们得出了一类简单的反概率加权估计器,并应用一个这样的估计量来评估限制或扩大利用“增加风险”肝脏器官以治疗终末期肝病患者的效果。我们的方法旨在评估与政策相关的干预措施,以设置有限的治疗资源。
Investigators often evaluate treatment effects by considering settings in which all individuals are assigned a treatment of interest, assuming that an unlimited number of treatment units are available. However, many real-life treatments are of limited supply and cannot be provided to all individuals in the population. For example, patients on the liver transplant waiting list cannot be assigned a liver transplant immediately at the time they reach highest priority because a suitable organ is not likely to be immediately available. In these cases, investigators may still be interested in the effects of treatment strategies in which a finite number of organs are available at a given time, that is, treatment regimes that satisfy resource constraints. Here, we describe an estimand that can be used to define causal effects of treatment strategies that satisfy resource constraints: proportionally-representative interventions for limited resources. We derive a simple class of inverse probability weighted estimators, and apply one such estimator to evaluate the effect of restricting or expanding utilization of "increased risk" liver organs to treat patients with end-stage liver disease. Our method is designed to evaluate policy-relevant interventions in the setting of finite treatment resources.