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In this paper, we design dynamic probabilistic caching for the scenario when the instantaneous content popularity may vary with time while it is possible to predict the average content popularity over a time window. Based on the average content popularity, optimal content caching probabilities can be found, e.g., from solving optimization problems, and existing results in the literature can implement the optimal caching probabilities via static content placement. The objective of this work is to design dynamic probabilistic caching that: i) converge (in distribution) to the optimal content caching probabilities under time-invariant content popularity, and ii) adapt to the time-varying instantaneous content popularity under time-varying content popularity. Achieving the above objective requires a novel design of dynamic content replacement because static caching cannot adapt to varying content popularity while classic dynamic replacement policies, such as LRU, cannot converge to target caching probabilities (as they do not exploit any content popularity information). We model the design of dynamic probabilistic replacement policy as the problem of finding the state transition probability matrix of a Markov chain and propose a method to generate and refine the transition probability matrix. Extensive numerical results are provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed design.