论文标题
基于网络的预测中国省的2019-NCOV流行病暴发
Network-Based Prediction of the 2019-nCoV Epidemic Outbreak in the Chinese Province Hubei
论文作者
论文摘要
在撰写本文时（2020年2月12日），尚不清楚2019-NCOV病毒的未来发展。对流行病的进一步预测是决定针对性疾病控制措施的决定性的。我们考虑了一个基于网络的模型来描述湖北省2019-NCOV流行病。该网络由湖北部的城市及其相互作用（例如，交通流）组成。但是，城市之间的精确相互作用尚不清楚，必须通过观察流行病来推断。我们提出了一种基于网络的方法，以预测每个城市2019-NCOV病毒的未来流行。我们的结果表明，基于网络的建模有益于对流行病暴发的准确预测。
At the moment of writing (12 February, 2020), the future evolution of the 2019-nCoV virus is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the 2019-nCoV epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is composed of the cities in Hubei and their interactions (e.g., traffic flow). However, the precise interactions between cities is unknown and must be inferred from observing the epidemic. We propose a network-based method to predict the future prevalence of the 2019-nCoV virus in every city. Our results indicate that network-based modelling is beneficial for an accurate forecast of the epidemic outbreak.
