论文标题
重新审视Haicheng和Tangshan地震的可预测性
Revisiting the predictability of the Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes
论文作者
论文摘要
We analyse the compiled set of precursory data that were reported to be available in real time before the Ms 7.5 Haicheng earthquake in Feb. 1975 and the Ms 7.6-7.8 Tangshan earthquake in July 1976. We propose a robust and simple coarse-graining method consisting in aggregating and counting how all the anomalies together (geodesy, levelling, geomagnetism, soil resistivity, Earth currents, gravity, Earth stress, well水ra，井水平）随着时间的变化而发展。我们证明了有力的证据表明，导致主要haicheng和Tangshan地震的异常数量加速。特别是对于汤山（Tangshan）地震，发现异常发生的频率被对数周期幂律奇异性（LPPLS）模型很好地描述，此前以前提出了用于预测工程失败的预测，后来又适应了财务崩溃的预测。基于模拟实时预测实验和仿真研究，我们基于这种监测异常加速速率的方法，显示了几天的预警系统的潜力。
We analyse the compiled set of precursory data that were reported to be available in real time before the Ms 7.5 Haicheng earthquake in Feb. 1975 and the Ms 7.6-7.8 Tangshan earthquake in July 1976. We propose a robust and simple coarse-graining method consisting in aggregating and counting how all the anomalies together (geodesy, levelling, geomagnetism, soil resistivity, Earth currents, gravity, Earth stress, well water radon, well water level) develop as a function of time. We demonstrate a strong evidence for the existence of an acceleration of the number of anomalies leading up to the major Haicheng and Tangshan earthquakes. In particular for the Tangshan earthquake, the frequency of occurrence of anomalies is found to be well described by the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model, previously proposed for the prediction of engineering failures and later adapted to the prediction of financial crashes. Based on a mock real-time prediction experiment, and simulation study, we show the potential for an early warning system with lead-time of a few days, based on this methodology of monitoring accelerated rates of anomalies.
