论文标题
温度下随机步行过程的变暖或冷却
Warming or cooling from a random walk process in the temperature
论文作者
论文摘要
引入了一个简单的3参数随机步行型号，用于每月波动$ \三角形t $ $ t $的三角形t $。应用于170年的时间范围，该模型的温度波动以大约14 \％的速度变暖产生，超过了观察到的从1850年到2019年的地面表面温度的全局变暖。另一方面，我们模型的运行有50 \％的可能性。如果可以将类似的随机行走过程用作有效的模型，以使全球地面温度波动，则由于内部和外部强迫引起的影响可能会被大大低估或低估。
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that exceeds the observed global warming of the earth surface temperature from 1850 to 2019. On the other hand, there is a 50\% likelihood for runs of our model resulting in cooling. If a similar random walk process can be used as an effective model for fluctuations of the global earth surface temperature, effects due to internal and external forcing could be considerably over- or underestimated.
