论文标题
预测多样性和人群智慧的选择性关注
Prediction diversity and selective attention in the wisdom of crowds
论文作者
论文摘要
人群的智慧是，一定量的大小的独立估计的组合产生了一个非常准确的预测，这总是比平均个体估计值更准确。此外，在很大程度上认为，通过增加估计值的多样性可以提高人群的准确性。在这里，我们报告了三个实验的结果，以探究当前对人群智慧的理解，即对罐子中的糖果数量，纸条长度和书籍页数的估计。我们发现，在所有三个实验中，集体估计值大于大多数个体估计值。在与预测多样性定理的分歧时，我们发现预测多样性与集体误差之间没有显着相关性。在某些实验中，人群的准确性差，使我们猜想其所谓的准确性很可能是选择性关注的技巧。
The wisdom of crowds is the idea that the combination of independent estimates of the magnitude of some quantity yields a remarkably accurate prediction, which is always more accurate than the average individual estimate. In addition, it is largely believed that the accuracy of the crowd can be improved by increasing the diversity of the estimates. Here we report the results of three experiments to probe the current understanding of the wisdom of crowds, namely, the estimates of the number of candies in a jar, the length of a paper strip, and the number of pages of a book. We find that the collective estimate is better than the majority of the individual estimates in all three experiments. In disagreement with the prediction diversity theorem, we find no significant correlation between the prediction diversity and the collective error. The poor accuracy of the crowd on some experiments lead us to conjecture that its alleged accuracy is most likely an artifice of selective attention.
