论文标题
谁投票支持英国脱欧？ 2019年欧洲议会选举的大不列颠构成模式
Who voted for a No Deal Brexit? A Composition Model of Great Britains 2019 European Parliamentary Elections
论文作者
论文摘要
本文的目的是利用2019年英国举行的欧洲大选的投票来重新访问其2016年欧盟全民公决投票后进行的分析。随着英国在2020年离开欧盟的行动，这项演习提供了关于公众舆论的演出文章。采用了看似无关的回归框架中的组成数据分析，尊重投票结果的组成性质；每个结果都是共享，总计高达100％，每个结果都与替代方案有关。每个计数领域的当代解释数据均来自社会人口统计学，就业，生活满意度和地点的主题。该研究发现，英国仍然有强大而鲜明的分裂，这些分裂是由年龄，资格，就业和地点定义的。在这些模型的解释方面，使用构图分析方法会带来挑战，但是边际图有助于解释。
The purpose of this paper is to use the votes cast at the 2019 European elections held in United Kingdom to re-visit the analysis conducted subsequent to its 2016 European Union referendum vote. This exercise provides a staging post on public opinion as the United Kingdom moves to leave the European Union during 2020. A composition data analysis in a seemingly unrelated regression framework is adopted that respects the compositional nature of the vote outcome; each outcome is a share that adds up to 100% and each outcome is related to the alternatives. Contemporary explanatory data for each counting area is sourced from the themes of socio-demographics, employment, life satisfaction and place. The study find that there are still strong and stark divisions in the United Kingdom, defined by age, qualifications, employment and place. The use of a compositional analysis approach produces challenges in regards to the interpretation of these models, but marginal plots are seen to aid the interpretation somewhat.
