论文标题
极年龄的人类死亡率
Human mortality at extreme age
论文作者
论文摘要
我们结合了极值理论，生存分析和计算机密集型方法来分析意大利和法国半居民的死亡率，并为此有验证的记录。在考虑了采样框架的影响之后，似乎有108岁以上的死亡率恒定的死亡率，国家和同伙之间没有差异。这些发现与以前基于寿命的国际数据库的工作一致，并建议任何对人类的物理上限如此之大，以至于不太可能接近它。没有证据表明意大利数据中108岁以后男女之间的生存差异和寿命国际数据库；但是，法国数据中男性的生存率较低。
We use a combination of extreme value theory, survival analysis and computer-intensive methods to analyze the mortality of Italian and French semi-supercentenarians for whom there are validated records. After accounting for the effects of the sampling frame, there appears to be a constant rate of mortality beyond age 108 years and no difference between countries and cohorts. These findings are consistent with previous work based on the International Database on Longevity and suggest that any physical upper bound for humans is so large that it is unlikely to be approached. There is no evidence of differences in survival between women and men after age 108 in the Italian data and the International Database on Longevity; however survival is lower for men in the French data.
